Can the Scottish team finally break their All Blacks hoodoo?
Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand
Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh When: this weekend Kick-off: 3:10 PM GMT
Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.
After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a Test.
A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."
Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.
Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.
Modern Encounters
Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.
During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.
Team News
Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.
Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory.
As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.
Key Absences
Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.
Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.
During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.
Replacement Concerns
They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.
Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.
Coaching Choices
The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.
The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.
Past Encounters
Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.
Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, set-piece issues.
By the Numbers
Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and fewer after halftime.
Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.
What Scotland Needs
Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.
The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.
Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.
Conclusion
Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.
With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.
Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.